Showing posts with label HBO. Show all posts
Showing posts with label HBO. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Pascal vs Kovalev and undercard Analysis



Boxing in 2014 was underwhelming for a myriad of reasons already explained but one of the biggest was the lack of huge fights between the best in a lot of divisions. The Light Heavyweight division was one of those culprits. Adonis Stevenson was one of those at fault. Sure we got Kovalev-Hopkins(in a rather one sided and boring fight) but what the hardcore boxing fans and writers really wanted was Kovalev-Stevenson. Prime fighters who have left a huge mark on the division lately. But alas, we are getting probably the next best thing in Kovalev-Pascal.  The entire card itself looks to be great as well as the main event, which always a great thing for boxing. 

Sergey “Krusher” Kovalev 26-0(23 KO) vs Jean Pascal 29-2(17 KO)

Jean Pascal lobbied hard for a superfight between he and Adonis Stevenson, hurling insult after insult at him, even going so far as to accept a 40-60 split just to get this fight made. All the boxing community wanted was Adonis to face someone at that level if he wasn’t going to face Kovalev. After Kovalev’s big win over Bernard Hopkins, Pascal jumped at the opportunity to face him, giving him his biggest payday in the process. Kovalev is just a dominating force in the Light Heavyweight division and comes to fight which is what boxing fans want and what the sport needs.  This matchup is probably the toughest of his career, while still maintaining that Hopkins was the best fighter he has faced yet.  

Sergey Kovalev has broken the mold and shown himself to be a great all around fighter despite the immense power he possesses. His fight against B-Hop showed the ability to stick to a strategy and stay patient against an incredibly intelligent fighter. The jab, the varied attack to the head and body, the general ability to adjust to the guy in front of him. We’re seeing a p4p guy that could eventually turn out to be an ATG fighter if he continues on the path he’s on. Now, we probably could’ve said that about Chad Dawson(lol) a couple years back as well, but the statement still holds true. There is this aura of invincibility around him that other great guys in the past have had.  I think what we may not have seen in a while is how Kovalev responds to really getting hit hard by an elite guy and how he does when someone is strong enough to push him backwards. He had been knocked down by Darnell Boone years back, but that guy has given tough fight to even some of the best, like Andre Ward and Adonis Stevenson.

Jean Pascal has had a very interesting career. A very good one. But for some reason, the perception has been that of the 3rd guy. “Yeah, Pascal is a tough fighter!”. The thing about his career is his only 2 losses have come to ATG Bernard Hopkins 4 years ago and future Hall of Famer Carl Froch. His notable wins are handing former LHW king, Chad Dawson his first loss as well as a win over Lucian Bute and Adrian Diaconu. Pascal is just a strong and fast fighter with good power in both hands. He has modeled his fighting style off of Roy Jones Jr. in terms of the unorthodox nature of his attack as well as keeping his hands very low while using his athletic gifts to attack as well as slip punches. The problem with that is, Roy Jones Jr. was virtually unbeatable due to the supreme ability in his prime. Pascal is a notch below those athletic gifts. He can be hit cleanly and he does gas in the later rounds of his fights. 

Kovalev just needs to be Kovalev. Throw a bunch of straight punches while applying intelligent pressure. He does need to be wary of Pascal’s counters and unorthodox nature and try to time him when he springs forward as he is prone to doing. Pascal’s chin is legit and sometimes he plays possum to draw his opponents in. 

Pascal needs to do a lot to win this fight, really. His unorthodox style has worked for a while against some of the best fighters in SMW and LHW but he does have those losses because of stamina issues or because his attack was timed. The best thing for Pascal to do is not lunge too much because that will definitely lead to him being hurt. Stay defensively responsible. But I think he has to push Kovalev back in this fight even if that isn’t specifically in his nature. You can’t win this fight purely on the backfoot due to how smart Kovalev is with the attack. He has the speed advantage so if he IS going to spend a lot of time going backwards he should be moving quite a bit making Kovalev reset his attack.

All in all I will Pascal would have to seriously hurt Kovalev or KO him to win this fight straight up. That might prove to be a tough task. He does have a good enough chin to survive though.

Kovalev UD  

 

Steve “USS” Cunningham 28-6(13 KO) vs Vyacheslav “The Czar” Glazkov 19-0(12 KO)
What we have here is a good Heavyweight matchup between 2 guys who aren’t actually heavyweights at all. Cunningham had a good run at Cruiserweight but obviously the money is at Heavyweight, and Glazkov has campaigned in the division since he began his pro career but he looks more suited at the lower division as well. Though that may be true, none of this means they can’t have success in the division they’re in. 

We know about Steve Cunningham and that he’s fighting for his 9 year old daughter who has been sick since birth with a heart ailment. It’s one of the most compelling stories in boxing and makes watching his fights that much better. Cunningham has faced the best the the Cruiserweight division has to offer, from  Cuban Joan Pablo Hernandez to Germany’s Marco Huck. He has 6 losses on his record but he’s a multiple champion and also has some big wins over the likes of Huck and Krzysztof Wlodarczyk. At heavyweight, since his loss to Tyson Fury, he’s on a 3 fight winning streak including wins over undefeated Amir Mansour and Natu Visinia. Cunningham is a good boxer with a really long reach standing at 82”. He has good movement and jab to offset his lack of power. He has exhibited some power, though, when he’s willing to sit down on his punches(as do a lot of similar fighters lol). He does get drawn into other people’s kind of fights at times and he can be hit if timed. He’s a good mover and focused but not necessarily a great defensive fighter and has been hurt and knocked down numerous times.

Glazkov is a former Bronze medalist and doesn’t have quite the story and resume that Cunningham has but is on the path to fighting for a HW championship soon enough with a win. He has a good win over the then 19-1, Tor Hamer but his career has had about 2 disputed fights occurring against Malik Scott and Derric Rossy. The Scott fight, a lot of people saw him losing a wide decision in a very boring fight but he luckily got out of there with a draw. The Rossy fight which was closer, but he again benefitted from a wide card not based on reality. Glazkov is a good, strong pressure fighter who has solid but not spectacular power. The problem with Glazkov is that he gets sucked into inactivity in his fights and often plods forward without throwing punches. This happened against Malik Scott whose workrate wasn’t even special in their fight. He has switched trainers but it seems this problem still plagues him.
For Cunningham to win he needs to stay off the ropes as much as possible and keep Glazkov engaged with the jab and counter him when he saunters inside. Glazkov has bouts of inactivity so it should be easy enough for USS to stick to the gameplan and make the fight easy for himself and he isn’t exactly very hard to hit. 

For Glazkov to win he has to draw Cunningham into a war. The pressure he applies has gotta be quicker and he has to be more active when he has his man on the ropes. I think if he hurts Cunningham early then he has an advantage mentally and can possibly make Cunningham switch his entire strategy. 

I’m going with Cunningham because I haven’t seen enough impressive to warrant picking Glazkov to win this fight and because the fighters Cunningham has lost to are all elite in their division. 

Cunningham by UD

 

Vasily “The Professor” Lepikhin 17-0(9 KO) vs Isaac “Golden Boy” Chilemba 23-2(10 KO)
Here we have another matchup of 2 of the up and coming fighters in a burgeoning Light Heavyweight division. Let’s get right to it.

What I like from Russia’s Lepikhin is that he’s a massive 6’4” in the LHW division but that he also has very good boxing ability to supplement his height. He towers over everyone so he should use those gifts, right? He also shows surprisingly good dedication to body work. His fight against Berride was easy because he had a huge size and technical advantage. The fight against Junior was tougher because he didn’t just stand there and got inside Lepikhin for a couple rounds. I noticed that he got drawn into laying on the ropes and not punching in that fight but maybe it was strategic. I saw him get hit cleanly a couple times and look gassed, though. 

The South African Chilemba has the same measurements as Lepikhin does. Very even match physically. He has some disputed losses/draws but overall those don’t take away from him as a fighter. He has the advantage in resume(Vlasov, Bellew, Oosthuizen) by far despite the fact that Lepikhin is 2 years older than him. That should serve him well. Chilemba is a good fighter who works off his jab a lot and stays very busy in the ring. He doesn’t move that much and seems content to box toe to toe a lot of times. That probably is partly due to solid defense and head movement. Sometimes though, he tends to lunge a bit and get his head out there open for counters. 

For Lephikin to win he needs to time Chilemba with the right hand over the jab and move his head when he’s on the offensive. He really needs to keep his workrate solid with the jab as well. Of course, it’s nice to have a varied attack, but he needs to be wary of just walking inside without punching on Chilemba because as I said, he’s a busy busy boxer with a snapping jab. Front or back foot, Lephikin needs to keep his focus.

For Chilemba to win he needs to outwork Lephikin and keep him occupied as much as he can. He also needs to provide some angles so Lephikin has to think more about his attack. I think as evidenced from Lephikin’s last fight, there will be spots where he fades a bit and leans on the ropes to get his rest. During those moments, Chilemba will have a chance to land to the body and head while Lephikin covers up. 

All of the fights on this card are just so competitive, man. 

I’m going with Lephikin by SD

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Golovkin vs Geale/Jennings vs Perez HBO Boxing 7/25/14








Gennady “GGG” Golovkin vs Daniel Geale

This fight is supposed to be Gennady Golovkin’s toughest test, but it feels like we hear that every other fight and the end result is an opponent either bloodied or beaten into submission. Is Golovkin the real deal or is he one of the new “boogeymen” and over hyped punchers in boxing? It’s a question I’ve struggled with for a while now watching GGG’s fights. We certainly know he has some boxing ability and throws really powerful punches to the head and body. He has a good selection and every punch isn’t thrown at the same velocity, but then we see him completely forgoing defense almost every fight. 

Geale is a boxer and counterpuncher with some big wins over Felix Sturm, Anthony Mundine,etc. He doesn’t have much power but he will most likely be the toughest fight for Golovkin since Ouma. That Ouma fight really is the reason I believe Geale has a better shot than anyone GGG has faced since then. Ouma boxed well and hit Golovkin a lot with the jab before succumbing to the power. Geale has the ability to do so. His lack of power is a good and bad thing imo. Good, because it might cause Golovkin to walk in and ignore defense, allowing him to get his jabs off. It’s conversely bad because if GGG walks through you, he’s going to be throwing a shitload of punches from all angles. 

With that said, I think Golovkin is going to take this fight just because he’s the best and most powerful fighter Geale has ever faced.  His workrate and power, as always, will be the difference in the fight. The Ouma fight was something, but that was a while ago and GGG has definitely improved since then.  If Geale can box and move for 12 rounds then he has a shot (easier said than done), but he isn’t exactly Rigondeaux or Floyd defensively, so he will eat some shots. 

Odds are pretty crazy with GGG at -1250. The under 11 ½ rds is at -300 so better odds there if you feel a knockout happens. Golovkin by KO

Bryant Jennings vs Mike Perez

Heavyweight eliminator. We have the American, Jennings, who started boxing later than usual(28) but is undefeated and keeping up his momentum vs Cuban Mike Perez who is looking to bounce back from his draw in his last bout with Carlos Takam. Both of these guys are similarly talented boxers and some of the smaller heavyweight fighters in the division at 6’2” and 6’1”. Both have fast hands and good boxing ability so we should be in for a great fight. 

I believe Jennings is quicker on his feet than Perez is and that coupled with his far superior reach(84” to 72” for Perez)  will be the difference in the fight. Neither man is a gigantic puncher in the division but I’d give the power advantage to Perez…slightly. For Jennings I’d say he needs to fight going backwards and counter Perez when he comes in. I’ve seen a tendency in Perez to get a little bit wild with his punches so the opportunity should be there. Perez needs to get inside and work the body because of his reach disadvantage. Jennings’ last fight he was mostly on the ropes and his opponent landed a good deal of body punches that may or may not have affected him, but was enough to win some rounds. Perez is superior to that guy in a couple different aspects.

I like Jennings here by Decision.  

Thursday, June 26, 2014

Crawford vs Gamboa, Korobov vs Uzcategui. HBO Boxing 6/28



On June 28th, we find ourselves with yet another great card of an action packed summer of boxing. Here are the major players.


Terence Crawford 23-0(16 KO) vs Yuriorkis Gamboa 23-0(16 KO)
Odds: Crawford -200  Gamboa +170

Years ago, we all would’ve thought Yuriorkis Gamboa would be the biggest star out of all the Cuban fighters coming up in boxing. In 2014, due to a myriad of issues between promoters and bouts of inactivity, Gamboa is still fairly unknown to the general public. With a win over undefeated champion, Terence Crawford, he has a shot to vault himself into the limelight finally. Terence Crawford is a young (26 years of age) fighter who fought good competition coming up as a prospect and finally became a champion earlier this year. Undefeated and looking to continue his winning ways after beating Ricky Burns rather easily earlier this year to win the WBO lightweight title over in England.  

This is such a fight of contrasting fighters. Crawford was a really good prospect in the amateurs, but  Gamboa was great, winning Gold at the Olympics. Crawford is 5’8” with a 70 inch reach, while Gamboa is 5’5” with a 65 inch reach. (Eye Test Section) Crawford seems to be more composed and knows exactly how he wants to fight at any given moment while Gamboa wants to box sometimes and other times he wants to rush in and look the Cuban Pacquiao, and pays for it sometimes. Oddly enough, they have the same record (23-0) and the same amount of knockouts(16) with 0 losses, but their careers really are in a different place. 

What Crawford needs to do is stay out of range for Gamboa. He’s the taller and longer fighter so he can afford to keep him at a distance with his jab. I can’t see Gamboa winning a boxing match with a guy who is as elusive and good a boxer as Terence Crawford is, especially with the height and reach disadvantages. He’s gonna have to make this an ugly fight. He has the speed and power to get inside and touch Crawford. Both of these guys are dynamic fighters, with the slight edge going to Gamboa in the speed and power departments. Both of these guys are the best each other has faced at this point in their careers so I know we will get a great fight on Saturday. 

Crawford by Decision. 


Matt Korobov 23-0(14 KO)

 vs Jose Uzcategui 22-0(18 KO)
Odds: Korobov -485  Uzcategui +385

This is a pretty good matchup with both men being undefeated and stepping up in class really. Normally you would look at this as a typical boxer-puncher matchup but after further analysis, I would say that isn’t exactly accurate. 

Korobov is a really slick southpaw. He’s just a good, well rounded boxer who can pretty much fight going backwards or forwards. Really good speed and pretty solid power. You see all the Eastern European fighters who are popular nowadays and isn’t exactly like the Golovkin’s or Kovalev’s of the world. He’s more of a patient fighter whereas Golovkin or Kovalev are always going(and getting) for the kill Watching this guy makes me reminisce about what Dmitry Pirog(though Pirog was better defensively) could have been if not for his back injury a couple years ago. Korobov is 31 unfortunately so if he’s going to take that step then now is the time to do so. After an illustrious amateur career, we would hope he could eventually match that level in the pros.

When you think of fighters from South America, Latin America, etc you think of one dimensional brawler type fighters, but when I watch Uzcategui I see a bit more than that. In his fight with Rogelio “Porky” Medina he showed some ability to box and countered rather well off the ropes. A lot of his offense came that way early in the fight. Now, Medina isn’t some A-level fighter, but he was a tough test for a really young up and coming prospect. Uzcategui is also a tall middleweight at 6’1” or 6’2”(can’t find it listed) with solid hand speed.

His lack of defense really may render all of that null and void, though.



With all that said its obvious Korobov is the better fighter regardless of age and has fought the better opposition. I think the way for Uzcategui to win is to fight how he did against Medina and draw Korobov in, trying to land his counters. Korobov tends to wait a bit sometimes and has a low output sometimes. If Uzcategui presses I think it’s going to be an easier fight where he himself gets countered and outboxed for most of the fight. For Korobov, I think he needs to keep his foot on the gas pedal. He’s the faster and technically superior fighter. In his fight against Derek Edwards he came out blazing and set the tone for the fight, eventually stopping Edwards after a brutal beatdown for 9 rounds. I kinda feel like he may come out the same way. Either way, I expect him to show off his complete skillset on HBO and advance to a big championship fight very soon. 

Korobov by Knockout