Saturday, March 7th
marks the beginning of the PBC (Premier Boxing Champions) on NBC, the
brainchild of Al Haymon that clearly has been in the works for years and
explains why fighters managed by him basically mailed 2014 in with weak
matchups. It truly is an exciting time in boxing and with the slate of fights
scheduled already on public tv as well as on cable (including the biggest one
obviously), it looks as if boxing may be undergoing a much needed resurgence. Headlining the card, we have 2 of Haymon’s
most promising fighters in Keith Thurman and the much maligned Adrien Broner squaring
off against solid and decent tests in Robert Guerrero and John Molina.
Adrien “The Problem” Broner
29-1(22 KO) vs John Molina 27-5(22 KO)
We all know Adrien Broner, and
not really for what he’s done inside the boxing ring, mostly because of his
mouth and antics outside of it. He does have an accomplished career thus far,
but one thing people can’t shake from their mind is the image of him getting
beat up and losing his zero against Marcos Maidana. Since then, in an attempt
to build Broner back up, he has been matched up with C level fighters who
really have no chance of beating him. Even still, the same flaws apparent
during the loss against Maidana have been still on display against these guys.
The inconsistent work rate, the not so fast feet and the shoulder roll that
allows him to be hit flush still while shaking his head “NO”. Even with all
these flaws, Broner still has physical advantages such as speed and power(to a
lesser extent now that he’s moved up) that will allow him to remain relevant
for a long time. His ability to counter is also a tool as well as a jab that
can be quite good when he commits.
John Molina is a guy whose
biggest wins have come against undefeated Hank Lundy and Mickey Bey when he was
getting outboxed in a big way and pulled out the KO late. No matter your
feelings about him, those are 2 big wins over really good fighters. The problem with Molina is that those 2 fights
are basically who he is. He can be outboxed and he can be hit very easily
because he presents nothing more than a come forward fighter who lacks defense.
He’s 3-4 in his last 7 fights with 2 losses in a row to Lucas Matthysse and
Humberto Soto. There’s a reason he’s
getting to fight Broner. I will say this
tho, the guy can really punch and that is testament to his 2 wins over Bey and
Lundy as well as his 2 knockdowns against Matthysse in last year’s fight.
The matchup is pretty simple to
me. I look for Broner to hand Molina his
3rd straight loss, though I can’t see this being by knockout. Broner
is the faster and better overall as a fighter. I expect Adrien to utilize his
trademark shoulder(lol) roll and counter punching to try and wear down Molina.
At this point though, we’ve all seen his limitations with footwork and defense
so I don’t expect him to put on some boxing masterclass against an opponent he
probably should.
For Molina, I think he will have
his most success where every Broner opponent has: when he has these lulls
offensively where he seemingly refuses to throw punches. If Molina can get off
first and throw 70 punches a round he might have a good shot to really get to
Broner. Easier said than done tho. I think trying his best to emulate Maidana’s
gameplan would work best. Left hooks and overhand rights.
I think this is a closer fight
than expected unless Broner somehow does a complete overhaul of his style.
Broner UD
Keith “One Time” Thurman 24-0(21
KO) vs Robert “The Ghost” Guerrero 32-2-1(18 KO)
Now this is a matchup that has
some real intrigue behind it. Thurman has been a star in the making for a
couple years but a lot of relevant fighters have appeared to not want to fight
him due to the risk/reward behind facing him. Some notable fighters like
Malignaggi and Guerrero stated that he needed more “seasoning” before they
would face him. Since the Floyd Mayweather fight, Robert Guerrero has seemed to
expect some serious paydays without actually getting in to fight guys and
rebuild his image. Instead, he opted to fight some lesser fighters while still
getting paid(which is smart, but sucks for boxing).
Thurman himself, well you’ve
probably seen him write about him before on this blog and all about the
attributes he possesses. The handspeed, the power, the movement, the great
boxing ability. The charisma. Yea, yea, yea. That he has gone this long without developing
into a superstar or getting the shot at a real championship has annoyed me. This
year may be his chance to do all of that, fortunately. His last fight against
undefeated Leonard Bundu of Italy, for some reason was really maligned due to
Thurman promising a knockout pre fight. And why not? Look at his KO percentage.
He arguably won 12 rounds by boxing and moving, even knocking Bundu down early.
I think because people didn’t really know of Bundu they held this 12-0 shutout
against him. What we saw that night is really what Thurman is: a very skilled
boxer-puncher.
Guerrero at this stage, even with
only 2 losses, really isn’t what people used to believe he was, similar to
Adrien Broner. He’s not a boxer anymore apparently. Every fight he has over the
past few years(aside from Floyd which he lost badly) has turned into a slugfest.
None of this is really a bad thing because it means more exciting outcomes for
the fans, but at the same time, people shouldn’t really expect Guerrero to come
out there and use his jab and move. At
this stage he’s a way better body puncher and inside fighter than he is
anything else. He doesn’t have that much power but the accumulation has done
damage on his recent opponents who are leagues below Thurman, though. He also possesses a great chin.
For Thurman to win he needs to do
what he usually does, which Is boxing and moving. He has much better speed of
hand and feet than Guerrero does by far so staying out of range and popping him
with jabs and countering while also finding the right moments to stand his
ground and tee off with power shots. His movement is just so good Keith has been really good at adjusting as
evidenced by the Chaves and Bundu fights.
For Guerrero to win he’s going to
have to weather the storm of One Time’s attack. He’s going to have to take some
to give, as he has done in a lot of his fights recently. People question how
good Thurman’s chin is because he’s been buzzed once or twice as well as how
good he truly is as an inside fighter. If Guerrero can get to his body and makes
it a rough and dirty fight like he did against Berto then he possibly can wear
Thurman down and cut down on his movement.
I see Thurman taking this fight
by decision by outboxing The Ghost and making him look very slow in the
process. Guerrero’s chin is the reason this goes 12.
Thurman UD.
