Analysis of Shawn Porter vs Kell Brook, Showtime Boxing(8/16/14)

Shawn “Showtime” Porter vs Kell “Special K” Brook  

This right here might be the most interesting fight of all summer. I guaransheed this is going to be a great fight no matter the duration. Well..if it ends in the 1^st or 2^nd not so much, but you get the point. This is a great stylistic matchup that offers many questions of both of these young (relative) boxers. Will Kell Brook’s relative inexperience play against him in this fight? Can Shawn Porter continue his dominating, leaping ways against a fighter like Brook who possesses good size and power? I think it’s fair to say an older above optimal division Julio Diaz gave Shawn Porter problems and a C fighter in Carson Jones gave Kell Brook the same issues in both of their 1^st fights but both individuals rectified that and more in the rematches. With every fight you come to a point where you just have to think about the styles and tendencies more than just purely overall performance in past fights. The relatively Micro over the Macro. 

The Positives:

Shawn Porter. Powerful. His strength is definitely his greatest asset. He fought at Middleweight in the amateurs I believe and it’s obvious that he has this strength advantage over most Welterweights. He can practically get inside and bull anyone. Excellent left hook. Good enough hand speed. Incredible tenacity and body work. 

Kell Brook: He’s tall, strong and has excellent punching power in the WW division. He also has a really crisp jab and pretty good fundamentals on his other punches. Definitely varies his attack to the head and body. He also has good movement when he’s focused early on in the fight.

The Negatives:

Porter is kinda undersized at the division but that hasn’t hindered him yet. My bigger issues remain with the lunging in and the wild swinging that he does often. At times it looks really good when he lands but in fights with Julio Diaz I it left him open and he got countered and hurt. In the Alexander fight you could see that as well but Devon doesn’t have much power so he got away with it. 

Brook hasn’t faced much in the way of competition. Senchenko was a good win. There are a couple other solid ones sprinkled through but this certainly is an issue. He also has some stamina problems as evidenced with the Carson Jones I fight, where he was winning pretty comfortably in the first half and let it slip away in the 2^nd.  

The Rundown:

I don’t believe Porter is the puncher people have come to believe he is ever since he iced Paulie a couple months ago. 2 Ko’s in his last 9 fights kind of validates that. I think the Alexander fight was a great win but Devon is a guy who likes to clinch a lot instead of using footwork to box and avoid. He also is just average defensively. He stood there and got hit then clinched instead of sliding away and jabbing. Brook is a big guy and probably does some of those things better than Alexander but his hand speed isn’t elite or even close to it. Some would say he looks just an ordinary fighter. We saw what happened in the Carson Jones fight where he was bulled and looked just decent in the 2^nd half. There is also no significant reach advantage with both of them being at 69”. So Brook may have the advantage in height but the reach which always tends to be more important is a draw. I think neither is a legendary talent but both have an opportunity to vault themselves into the elite with a win here. 

For Porter, he needs to keep doing what he’s doing and get inside on Brook and rough him up. We’ve seen that Porter can fight going backwards at times but he’s more comfortable being the aggressor. If he dedicates to the body then he can tire Brook out and that bodes well for the later rounds of the fight. He does need to limit the wild swings and lunges focus a bit more on defense when he’s coming forward. 

For Brook, I think boxing this guy and countering him is a good way to go. Porter likes to lunge and get wild a lot and leaves his chin exposed when he’s coming in so I know there will be plenty of opportunities for Kell to tag him. But he also needs to stay on the move and limit what Porter does when tie ups occur.  Switching rhythm on Porter is a good idea as well. You can box and move but also come forward and throw him for a loop. Make him think a bit more about his options. 

I like Brook in this fight if he can execute the gameplan well enough over 12 rounds. Brook +185

Sakio Bika vs Anthony Dirrell 2

The last time these 2 fought it resulted in a Draw and as you know, draws really do suck. Anyways, the last fight I thought the not as highly touted Dirrell brother did enough to win the fight but the judges disagreed. He did let Bika’s style get to his head and as Bika fights go(very ugly), it turned into a true mess. The fight was still pretty entertaining, though.

Bika, we know what he is at this point. He’s a physical, sloppy and some would say, dirty fighter, who has a great resume and has given everyone from Joe Calzaghe to Andre Ward a tough fight. He is up there in age so who knows how he looks coming out. 

Dirrell is the less heralded brother and less skilled(but still skilled) but probably possesses more power than his brother. He has good technical skills and speed and isn’t afraid to engage in a fight. 

The key for Bika is to…well..do what Bika does. Make it an ugly ass fight and annoy his opponent so much he gets off his game. He has good power but records can be a little deceiving based on the quality of opponent you face. If he can be Sakio Bika for 12 rounds then I think he can escape with a decision this time around.

Dirrell…you are the better technical fighter by far. Faster and better defensively. Keep the jab out there. Make sure you try to stay away from the clinches that Bika will ensure happens. Basically he needs to be first here at all times and avoid the lulls that led to him giving away rounds. Dirrell hurt Bika a couple times and even knocked him down once so we know his power is legit and a chance may be there again. 

Dirrell -200   Younger fighter, more to prove here. Bika has never been knocked out before but I could see it happening.

Russell-Lomachenko, Guerrero-Kamegai, Alexander-Soto Karass. Boxing 6/21

Gary Russell Jr 24-0(14 Ko) vs Vasyl Lomachenko 1-1(1 KO)

One of the most interesting fights of the year. Both guys were great amateur prospects. One guy has actually been in 24 fights in the pros whereas the other guy has only been 2, but somehow has already gotten title shots. Here are the positives. Russell Jr has great speed, arguably the best hand speed in boxing. He has a good jab and good punch variety and some pop. Lomachenko has good speed(not on Russell’s level) and good movement as well as a well-rounded arsenal of punches. The criticisms might be that Russell Jr. hasn’t exactly faced anyone of note in 24 fights so we don’t know how tested he really is. Lomachenko himself, has been thrust into 2 title shots in a row to start his professional career. 

I expect nothing less than an amazing fight here. For GRJ, I think he needs to just keep his output high and at range in the center of the ring, which shouldn’t be a problem for him. I’ve seen some lulls for Lomachenko offensively if engaged and a lot of times he thinks a bit too much and doesn’t throw(at least what I’ve seen in his 2 fights in the pros). There are gonna be a good amount of chances for Russell to counter since we know Lomachenko most of the time is using his head movement and foot movement to press forward and set up his offense. 

Lomachenko has fought a lot of amateur fights. He was 396-1 I believe, so he has seen probably almost every style there is. But as we know, the pros are a completely different animal. Though he has great speed, Russell isn’t exactly the slickest boxer out there. I think Lomachenko has really good body work and that’s where he can be really effective against Russell. If and when he pushes him to the ropes he can really get some good work to the body, leading to some more big shots up top. 

I think it’s fair to say Lomachenko has fought better opposition even in only 2 fights in the pros and this should be Russell’s toughest fight. I also think it’s fair to say that maybe Lomachenko should be getting himself more acclimated to the pro life instead of rushing into big fights so soon.  I just think the odds really should be more even here and Russell is slightly more gifted. 

Russell Jr. +160. I see 12 rounds here.

Robert Guerrero vs Yoshihiro Kamegai 

Don’t call it a comeback! Guerrero has been chillin for the past year ever since he got outboxed badly against Floyd Mayweather Jr. I guess when you go from what you’re making normally to in the millions, going back to the drawing board doesn’t seem like a proposition you want to find yourself in. So, he turned down a couple fights, notably one with Keith Thurman. So here we are, all these months later, Robert Guerrero finding himself in the ring with a boxer not many people really know of for a tune up fight. I don’t know why people act like Guerrero isn’t a really good fighter. He’s a multiple division champion(though belts sure are easy to come by nowadays lol) and only has 2 losses on his record. It’s pretty easy for anyone to look really bad against Floyd. 

Listen man, I feel like Guerrero is the better boxer here by a lot, as well as inside fighter and he should also have a slight speed advantage. Kamegai is a straight forward fighter. He has power, he has a decent variety on his punches. I don’t see much of a jab from him or defense. I think there are more ways for Guerrero to win this but I think Kamegai should try the uppercut. I’ve seen Guerrero get hit with that a lot his last few fights, mainly against Berto and Aydin. Kamegai also needs to be first in his exchanges and try to avoid tie ups. 

You can’t underestimate the effects of a layoff as long as Guerrero took. I think we’ve seen that enough in boxing. He is the favorite, though, and the better fighter. 

Guerrero by KO

Devon Alexander vs Jesus Soto Karass

This fight here is a good fight for Alexander who’s coming off a loss, and yet another chance for career journeyman Soto Karass to possibly score a big win over a notable fighter. I never really liked Alexander after watching him get thoroughly outboxed against Kotelnik, but get the win. And then it happened again against Lucas Matthysse!  The guy’s style is actually effective but really boring to watch; he even managed to dominate and make a Maidana fight really bad looking. In Alexander’s last fight, a loss to Shawn Porter, he was manhandled on the inside by a stronger fighter and beaten to the punch. Can Soto Karass do this? Eh. Big win against Berto, but Berto has never shown himself to be a good inside fighter. And then there’s the thing about him getting hit in the face and body way too easily. It’s gonna be an ugly fight that I expect the better, younger fighter to win. Ugly fight.

Alexander -850

This is just sad man. smh. Hopefully Dawson can bounce back and return to his LHW greatness.

So What It Ain't Floyd/Canelo?....Tune in.. Berto/Soto Karass, Thurman/Chaves(July 27th)

Saturday on Showtime(9 PM ET) features a great and what should be an action packed card with 2 big Welterweight fights in Andre Berto(28-2) vs. Jesus Soto Karass(27-8-3) with the co-feature pitting Keith Thurman against Diego Gabriel Chaves. Maybe at the conclusion of these 2 fights, we'll get a fight a lot of people would love to see in Andre Berto and Keith Thurman booked. Maybe we'll get Broner/Thurman. Prolly not but I can Hope! But, I'm getting ahead of myself, so let's get to the breakdown of these fights. 

Andre Berto's career started off very promising, securing an exclusive HBO deal allegedly getting 1 Million a fight from them. He was touted as the next big star of the sport and looked to be on track not losing a fight in his career(but boxing heads knew the real deal). He hit a snag when he lost his first career fight in an upset to Victor Ortiz, where all his offensive and defense flaws were exposed. 

He won his next fight against Jan Zaveck, a tough opponent, but again in the Robert Guerrero fight, his offensive and defensive flaws were exposed yet again. He even revealed some poor shoulder roll variation that he abandoned early in the fight(yikes). Berto's refusal to be consistent with the jab, poor inside fighting and general lack of defense have been glaring in his last 3 fights.

Jesus Soto Karass on the other hand hasn't been anything special over his career. He's 3-5 in his last 8 fights with losses to notable fighters such as Gabriel Rosado and Marcos Maidana. With that said, he does hold a solid win against Selcuk Aydin(24-2) of Turkey. His fight against Marcos Maidana showed a very game opponent and was a very entertaining fight until the knockout. Karass was aggressive as usual, giving a lot of offense, but taking a lot of punishment as well.

In all honesty, this is a perfect fight for Berto to reestablish himself in the Welterweight division. A fighter who will come forward and absorb punishment. Soto Karass doesn't present the same dangers that Ortiz and Guerrero did. Berto needs to fight aggressively but also smart(which sometimes he forgets to do). Use the jab, try not to get caught inside fighting, and PLEASE abandon that abomination of a shoulder roll he used last fight. Soto Karass's best and only chance is to take it to Berto and get him into an ugly fight.

Going with Berto to end this fight by Knockout.

 Keith Thurman(20-0) vs Diego Chaves(22-0) is an intriguing fight that pits 2 undefeated Welterweights against each other, with the winner assuredly propelled to the next level of their careers. Both fighters possess knockout power with 36 KO's between them in 42 fights. Expect fireworks in this one.

Keith Thurman's rise came quick and unexpected ever since he burst onto HBO and immediately called out a grip of fighters after a knockout win. Thurman has shown off an intriguing skill set and is improving as each fight passes. His tenacity in(and outside) of the ring might be his best asset and the knockouts and exciting are more than welcome. 

Prior to his last 2 fights he didn't have anyone really of note on his resume, but with the names Carlos Quintana(Former WW Champ, Win over Paul Williams) and Jan Zaveck(IBF WW Champ) on there now, he gained some level of credibility with the fans.

Diego Chaves is similarly undefeated prospect, but without the name recognition or even resume to warrant any reaction by boxing fans, but he is undefeated for a reason. He is a good, solid fighter with power and a very aggressive approach in the ring.

Hailing from Argentina, home of professional fighters you may recognize by the names of Sergio Martinez and Lucas Matthyssee, he should be not taken lightly at all. Every fighter has had a soft resume before and needed a come up somewhere. Maybe this fight will be his chance to show the world his abilities on a grand stage.

In this fight, Thurman needs to be cautious of the power Chaves possesses. He needs to use the jab often and and employ the defense that he has shown at times throughout his last couple of fights. And if the opportunity for big shots presents itself(which it undoubtedly will), take it. Well, you know Thurman will take the opportunity. lol.

Chaves himself in my opinion is at a skills and talent disadvantage in this fight, but that never stopped a fighter from winning a fight. He has the power and aggression and we know he won't hold back the first couple of rounds. Thurman's defense isn't impregnable(mike!), not just yet, so Chaves will have a good amount of opportunities to get some big shots in, especially when Thurman is lunging in.

Going with Thurman here. possible KO.