Wednesday, July 4, 2012

UFC 148 Prelims Analysis and Predictions


Prologue by GMarquee.

The Summer for many American sports fans can often be a disappointment due to the NBA ending and the slowness of the summer sports like Baseball, and the foreignness of Soccer ,Tennis, etc to this generation. Many anxiously await the return of NFL and College Football in the Fall, but until then, all we hear are the complaints. Sports like Boxing and MMA, though they seem like niche sports due to the infrequency in which they air, often have some exciting cards and explosive fights scheduled. Over the next couple of months we're going to try to generate interest in all of these sports through our blogging and hope to reach as wide an audience as we can.

Prelims by @MulattoBawse

UFC 148 is quite possibly the biggest card in 2012 with the middleweight title on the line in the most anticipated rematch in UFC history. Anderson Silva puts his belt on the line with the biggest rival of his long tenured MMA career, Chael Sonnen, in what may possibly be the biggest grudge match since Rampage vs. Rashad, and of all time. But before Silva and Sonnen lock horns, there are still many very intriguing matches on the undercard and prelims…I'll now preview the preliminary card which can be viewed on FX in America.

Rafaello Oliveira vs. Yoislandy Izquierdo

Both fighters are coming off losses and will be fighting to keep their spot in the UFC. Oliveira's run in the UFC has been pretty lackluster as he compiled a record of 1-4. He is most recently coming off back to back losses to Yves Edwards and Glesion Tibau whereas Cuban native, Izquierdo, is coming off the first loss of his MMA career to top prospect Reza Madadi. I expect both fighters to put it all on the line as neither wants to risk the chance of getting cut by the UFC. I believe that Izquierdo will get the victory here by TKO. I see more potential in Izquierdo than I do in Oliveira, whose ship has sailed. Oliveira tends not compete to the best of his abilities on the big show and he’s going to have problems with Izquierdo's nice stand up. In order for Oliveira to win he needs to do what Madadi did and expose Izquierdo's weakness on the ground, but only if his wrestling is up to par. I don't believe it is, so I see Izquierdo eventually catching Oliveira and finishing him.

My Prediction: Yoislandy Izquierdo, TKO in the 2nd Round

Shane Roller Vs. John Alessio

In another bout where both fighters could be fighting for their job, 3 time All-American wrestler Shane Roller faces long time MMA veteran John Alessio. After a nice run in the WEC, Shane Roller hasn't seemed to find his niche in the UFC. Despite winning "Knockout of the Night" against UFC veteran Thiago Tavares, Roller has dropped 3 in a row and if he losses to Alessio he will likely be cut. After fighting his way back into the UFC after a 6 year run in the independent organizations, Alessio made his UFC return against the highly underrated Mark Bocek, losing by decision. Both need a win here badly, especially Shane Roller. Roller has knock out power (as displayed in the Tavares fight), but still has a lot of holes in his stand up. Alessio is very well rounded in all aspects and has the advantage in the stand up to pick Roller apart… Roller needs to use his collegiate wrestling background and control Alessio on the ground. I believe Roller will be smart in this fight seeing that he will be cut if he loses. He will have to return to what brought him to the dance and outwrestle the Xtreme Couture product throughout the fight.

My Prediction: Shane Roller, Unanimous Decision

Constantinos Philippou Vs. Riki Fukuda

In a bout which promises to move either fighter up the middleweight ladder, the blazing hot Matt Serra product, Constantinos Philippou, faces tough and highly skilled Japanese veteran Riki Fukuda in a very intriguing match. Since losing in the fights to enter the house on Ultimate Fighter Season 11 and his debut bout against Nick Catone (a fight he took on short notice), Philippou has won 3 straight against tough competition, defeating extremely tough fighters like Jorge Rivera and Jared Hamman in which he made a name for himself amongst the MMA community. But his biggest win to date was against Court McGee, who was the winner of the Ultimate Fighter season in which Philippou failed to even make it past the preliminary bouts.

Riki Fukuda has been a name fight fans has recognized for years, but it wasn't until last year until he finally got a chance to fight for the #1 promotion in the world. Fukuda is known for his wrestling, but has shown he can brawl and mix it up… As well as his toughness and chin. In his debut he was robbed against Nick Ring in what fans and experts thought was the worst decision in UFC history. But Riki wasn't fazed by it and bounced back and gave Steve Cantwell the pink slip exit out of the UFC in his home country of Japan.

Both fighters are very well rounded… Constantinos hands really impressed me and that has to be credited to Ray Longo. In the McGee fight he was able to counter him and push the pace of the fight and land at a nice rate. Matt Serra seems to have Constantinos on the way to contending and I don't think Riki Fukuda will derail him. I see Constantinos keeping Riki at bay with his boxing and controlling the fight. Even if Riki is able to take Constantinos down, I see him scrambling back to his fight. Riki can keep it close and maybe steal a round, but ultimately I see this as Constantinos fight to lose.

My Prediction: Constantinos Philippou by Decision

Melvin Guillard Vs. Fabricio Camoes

Anyone who has followed Guillard throughout his whole career will all tell you the same thing. His tools give him potential to be the champion of the lightweight division.. He's extremely fast, powerful and athletic, but his main problem is his mental breakdowns. When Melvin is put in tough positions or is pushed by other fighters he folds, not to mention his questionable ground game, especially his submission defense. Melvin appeared to have gotten things together in going on a 5 fight win streak with wins over big names like Jeremy Stephens, Evan Dunham, and Shane Roller. In fact most people were saying he was next in line for a title shot, until he was derailed by Joe Lauzon. In his next fight against Jim Miller, he looked like vintage Melvin where he was winning the fight with his speed and athleticism until trying something flashy and getting taken down and submitted easily.

On paper, Melvin is facing a fighter whose strength is his weakness. Fabricio Cameos is an accomplished BJJ black belt under the legendary Royler Gracie. On top of his grappling abilities Fabricio is known for his toughness… Early in his career he went 25 minutes in bare knuckle MMA bout in Brazil against the man who will one day become quite possibly the greatest fighter in MMA history, Anderson Silva. Camoes hasn't been TKO'd since 1997, which says a lot about this 15 year veteran’s career in the sport. Despite a draw to legendary Caol Uno in which he would've won if he didn't get points deducted for illegal kicks, and a submission loss to Kurt Pellegrino, Fabricio was able to bounce back and earn a spot back in the UFC. He defeated UFC veterans Steve Lopez, and Ultimate Fighter winner Efrain Escudero in the independent organization. In his first bout back he was able to defeat undefeated fighter Tommy Hayden by first round submission marking his first win in the UFC.

In this fight I can't see Guillard being able to finish the tough Camoes early and will eventually crumble and be submitted by the Brazilian in the 2nd round. Guillard will put the heat on Camoes early, and his speed and strength will cause Camoes problems, but once he realize that Camoes won't quit… I expect Camoes to put Guillard to the ground and get the submission win.

My Prediction: Fabricio Camoes, 2nd Round Submission

Gleison Tibau Vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov

This is one of the most under the radar fights on the card which will finish off FX's live preliminary bouts programming. Very interesting fight in the lightweight division and a win will help secure either fighter a top lightweight fight in the near future.

Gleison Tibau is one of the biggest lightweights in the division, who walks around 180+ lbs at fight night. On top of that he is a long time UFC veteran with 15 bouts under his belt, with wins over solid fighters like Rich Clementi, Terry Etim, Jeremy Stephens, Josh Neer, Caol Uno and Rafael dos Anjos. Coming from American Top Team, Gleison is good at all areas of MMA, but his main strengths are his ground game where he uses his size advantage and his black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. In his 25 wins, he has 11 by submission but his stand up game isn't horrible either. He has shown he can throw hands (like he did against a top 10 level Lightweight Jim Miller), but needless to say, Gleison prefers to use his size advantage and take the fight to the ground.

Khabib Nurmagomedov is one of the scariest and interesting prospects in the Lightweight division. At only 23 years old, he has been able to remain undefeated in 17 bouts in which he finished 13(by submission or knockout), and 10 of them have been in the first round. In his first fight in the UFC, he DESTROYED accomplished wrestler Kamal Shalorus which was one of the most impressive UFC debuts of the year. Even though the Russian still trains with some of his home country’s coaches, he has traveled to the American Kickboxing Academy in San Jose and AMA Fight Club in New Jersey to mix things up.

I see this fight as a coming out party for the young Russian, Nurmagomedov. While I think Tibau is a good step up for the young fighter, I feel he has few advantages and will not be able to use his wrestling skills and strength against the Judo black belt and Sambo World Champion. This fight will put the lightweight division on notice that Khabib Nurmagomedov is on the come up and ready for all challengers. I see him eventually stopping Gleison after Gleison puts up a tough solid fight.

My prediction: Khabib Nurmagomedov, TKO Round 3

This rounds out my preliminary card, but stay tuned as I preview the main card, co main event and the main event.

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