Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Pascal vs Kovalev and undercard Analysis



Boxing in 2014 was underwhelming for a myriad of reasons already explained but one of the biggest was the lack of huge fights between the best in a lot of divisions. The Light Heavyweight division was one of those culprits. Adonis Stevenson was one of those at fault. Sure we got Kovalev-Hopkins(in a rather one sided and boring fight) but what the hardcore boxing fans and writers really wanted was Kovalev-Stevenson. Prime fighters who have left a huge mark on the division lately. But alas, we are getting probably the next best thing in Kovalev-Pascal.  The entire card itself looks to be great as well as the main event, which always a great thing for boxing. 

Sergey “Krusher” Kovalev 26-0(23 KO) vs Jean Pascal 29-2(17 KO)

Jean Pascal lobbied hard for a superfight between he and Adonis Stevenson, hurling insult after insult at him, even going so far as to accept a 40-60 split just to get this fight made. All the boxing community wanted was Adonis to face someone at that level if he wasn’t going to face Kovalev. After Kovalev’s big win over Bernard Hopkins, Pascal jumped at the opportunity to face him, giving him his biggest payday in the process. Kovalev is just a dominating force in the Light Heavyweight division and comes to fight which is what boxing fans want and what the sport needs.  This matchup is probably the toughest of his career, while still maintaining that Hopkins was the best fighter he has faced yet.  

Sergey Kovalev has broken the mold and shown himself to be a great all around fighter despite the immense power he possesses. His fight against B-Hop showed the ability to stick to a strategy and stay patient against an incredibly intelligent fighter. The jab, the varied attack to the head and body, the general ability to adjust to the guy in front of him. We’re seeing a p4p guy that could eventually turn out to be an ATG fighter if he continues on the path he’s on. Now, we probably could’ve said that about Chad Dawson(lol) a couple years back as well, but the statement still holds true. There is this aura of invincibility around him that other great guys in the past have had.  I think what we may not have seen in a while is how Kovalev responds to really getting hit hard by an elite guy and how he does when someone is strong enough to push him backwards. He had been knocked down by Darnell Boone years back, but that guy has given tough fight to even some of the best, like Andre Ward and Adonis Stevenson.

Jean Pascal has had a very interesting career. A very good one. But for some reason, the perception has been that of the 3rd guy. “Yeah, Pascal is a tough fighter!”. The thing about his career is his only 2 losses have come to ATG Bernard Hopkins 4 years ago and future Hall of Famer Carl Froch. His notable wins are handing former LHW king, Chad Dawson his first loss as well as a win over Lucian Bute and Adrian Diaconu. Pascal is just a strong and fast fighter with good power in both hands. He has modeled his fighting style off of Roy Jones Jr. in terms of the unorthodox nature of his attack as well as keeping his hands very low while using his athletic gifts to attack as well as slip punches. The problem with that is, Roy Jones Jr. was virtually unbeatable due to the supreme ability in his prime. Pascal is a notch below those athletic gifts. He can be hit cleanly and he does gas in the later rounds of his fights. 

Kovalev just needs to be Kovalev. Throw a bunch of straight punches while applying intelligent pressure. He does need to be wary of Pascal’s counters and unorthodox nature and try to time him when he springs forward as he is prone to doing. Pascal’s chin is legit and sometimes he plays possum to draw his opponents in. 

Pascal needs to do a lot to win this fight, really. His unorthodox style has worked for a while against some of the best fighters in SMW and LHW but he does have those losses because of stamina issues or because his attack was timed. The best thing for Pascal to do is not lunge too much because that will definitely lead to him being hurt. Stay defensively responsible. But I think he has to push Kovalev back in this fight even if that isn’t specifically in his nature. You can’t win this fight purely on the backfoot due to how smart Kovalev is with the attack. He has the speed advantage so if he IS going to spend a lot of time going backwards he should be moving quite a bit making Kovalev reset his attack.

All in all I will Pascal would have to seriously hurt Kovalev or KO him to win this fight straight up. That might prove to be a tough task. He does have a good enough chin to survive though.

Kovalev UD  

 

Steve “USS” Cunningham 28-6(13 KO) vs Vyacheslav “The Czar” Glazkov 19-0(12 KO)
What we have here is a good Heavyweight matchup between 2 guys who aren’t actually heavyweights at all. Cunningham had a good run at Cruiserweight but obviously the money is at Heavyweight, and Glazkov has campaigned in the division since he began his pro career but he looks more suited at the lower division as well. Though that may be true, none of this means they can’t have success in the division they’re in. 

We know about Steve Cunningham and that he’s fighting for his 9 year old daughter who has been sick since birth with a heart ailment. It’s one of the most compelling stories in boxing and makes watching his fights that much better. Cunningham has faced the best the the Cruiserweight division has to offer, from  Cuban Joan Pablo Hernandez to Germany’s Marco Huck. He has 6 losses on his record but he’s a multiple champion and also has some big wins over the likes of Huck and Krzysztof Wlodarczyk. At heavyweight, since his loss to Tyson Fury, he’s on a 3 fight winning streak including wins over undefeated Amir Mansour and Natu Visinia. Cunningham is a good boxer with a really long reach standing at 82”. He has good movement and jab to offset his lack of power. He has exhibited some power, though, when he’s willing to sit down on his punches(as do a lot of similar fighters lol). He does get drawn into other people’s kind of fights at times and he can be hit if timed. He’s a good mover and focused but not necessarily a great defensive fighter and has been hurt and knocked down numerous times.

Glazkov is a former Bronze medalist and doesn’t have quite the story and resume that Cunningham has but is on the path to fighting for a HW championship soon enough with a win. He has a good win over the then 19-1, Tor Hamer but his career has had about 2 disputed fights occurring against Malik Scott and Derric Rossy. The Scott fight, a lot of people saw him losing a wide decision in a very boring fight but he luckily got out of there with a draw. The Rossy fight which was closer, but he again benefitted from a wide card not based on reality. Glazkov is a good, strong pressure fighter who has solid but not spectacular power. The problem with Glazkov is that he gets sucked into inactivity in his fights and often plods forward without throwing punches. This happened against Malik Scott whose workrate wasn’t even special in their fight. He has switched trainers but it seems this problem still plagues him.
For Cunningham to win he needs to stay off the ropes as much as possible and keep Glazkov engaged with the jab and counter him when he saunters inside. Glazkov has bouts of inactivity so it should be easy enough for USS to stick to the gameplan and make the fight easy for himself and he isn’t exactly very hard to hit. 

For Glazkov to win he has to draw Cunningham into a war. The pressure he applies has gotta be quicker and he has to be more active when he has his man on the ropes. I think if he hurts Cunningham early then he has an advantage mentally and can possibly make Cunningham switch his entire strategy. 

I’m going with Cunningham because I haven’t seen enough impressive to warrant picking Glazkov to win this fight and because the fighters Cunningham has lost to are all elite in their division. 

Cunningham by UD

 

Vasily “The Professor” Lepikhin 17-0(9 KO) vs Isaac “Golden Boy” Chilemba 23-2(10 KO)
Here we have another matchup of 2 of the up and coming fighters in a burgeoning Light Heavyweight division. Let’s get right to it.

What I like from Russia’s Lepikhin is that he’s a massive 6’4” in the LHW division but that he also has very good boxing ability to supplement his height. He towers over everyone so he should use those gifts, right? He also shows surprisingly good dedication to body work. His fight against Berride was easy because he had a huge size and technical advantage. The fight against Junior was tougher because he didn’t just stand there and got inside Lepikhin for a couple rounds. I noticed that he got drawn into laying on the ropes and not punching in that fight but maybe it was strategic. I saw him get hit cleanly a couple times and look gassed, though. 

The South African Chilemba has the same measurements as Lepikhin does. Very even match physically. He has some disputed losses/draws but overall those don’t take away from him as a fighter. He has the advantage in resume(Vlasov, Bellew, Oosthuizen) by far despite the fact that Lepikhin is 2 years older than him. That should serve him well. Chilemba is a good fighter who works off his jab a lot and stays very busy in the ring. He doesn’t move that much and seems content to box toe to toe a lot of times. That probably is partly due to solid defense and head movement. Sometimes though, he tends to lunge a bit and get his head out there open for counters. 

For Lephikin to win he needs to time Chilemba with the right hand over the jab and move his head when he’s on the offensive. He really needs to keep his workrate solid with the jab as well. Of course, it’s nice to have a varied attack, but he needs to be wary of just walking inside without punching on Chilemba because as I said, he’s a busy busy boxer with a snapping jab. Front or back foot, Lephikin needs to keep his focus.

For Chilemba to win he needs to outwork Lephikin and keep him occupied as much as he can. He also needs to provide some angles so Lephikin has to think more about his attack. I think as evidenced from Lephikin’s last fight, there will be spots where he fades a bit and leans on the ropes to get his rest. During those moments, Chilemba will have a chance to land to the body and head while Lephikin covers up. 

All of the fights on this card are just so competitive, man. 

I’m going with Lephikin by SD

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