PBC on NBC! Thurman vs Guerrero, Broner vs Molina Analysis

Saturday, March 7^th marks the beginning of the PBC (Premier Boxing Champions) on NBC, the brainchild of Al Haymon that clearly has been in the works for years and explains why fighters managed by him basically mailed 2014 in with weak matchups. It truly is an exciting time in boxing and with the slate of fights scheduled already on public tv as well as on cable (including the biggest one obviously), it looks as if boxing may be undergoing a much needed resurgence.  Headlining the card, we have 2 of Haymon’s most promising fighters in Keith Thurman and the much maligned Adrien Broner squaring off against solid and decent tests in Robert Guerrero and John Molina. 

Adrien “The Problem” Broner 29-1(22 KO) vs John Molina 27-5(22 KO)

We all know Adrien Broner, and not really for what he’s done inside the boxing ring, mostly because of his mouth and antics outside of it. He does have an accomplished career thus far, but one thing people can’t shake from their mind is the image of him getting beat up and losing his zero against Marcos Maidana. Since then, in an attempt to build Broner back up, he has been matched up with C level fighters who really have no chance of beating him. Even still, the same flaws apparent during the loss against Maidana have been still on display against these guys. The inconsistent work rate, the not so fast feet and the shoulder roll that allows him to be hit flush still while shaking his head “NO”. Even with all these flaws, Broner still has physical advantages such as speed and power(to a lesser extent now that he’s moved up) that will allow him to remain relevant for a long time. His ability to counter is also a tool as well as a jab that can be quite good when he commits. 

John Molina is a guy whose biggest wins have come against undefeated Hank Lundy and Mickey Bey when he was getting outboxed in a big way and pulled out the KO late. No matter your feelings about him, those are 2 big wins over really good fighters.  The problem with Molina is that those 2 fights are basically who he is. He can be outboxed and he can be hit very easily because he presents nothing more than a come forward fighter who lacks defense. He’s 3-4 in his last 7 fights with 2 losses in a row to Lucas Matthysse and Humberto Soto.  There’s a reason he’s getting to fight Broner.  I will say this tho, the guy can really punch and that is testament to his 2 wins over Bey and Lundy as well as his 2 knockdowns against Matthysse in last year’s fight. 

The matchup is pretty simple to me.  I look for Broner to hand Molina his 3^rd straight loss, though I can’t see this being by knockout. Broner is the faster and better overall as a fighter. I expect Adrien to utilize his trademark shoulder(lol) roll and counter punching to try and wear down Molina. At this point though, we’ve all seen his limitations with footwork and defense so I don’t expect him to put on some boxing masterclass against an opponent he probably should. 

For Molina, I think he will have his most success where every Broner opponent has: when he has these lulls offensively where he seemingly refuses to throw punches. If Molina can get off first and throw 70 punches a round he might have a good shot to really get to Broner. Easier said than done tho. I think trying his best to emulate Maidana’s gameplan would work best. Left hooks and overhand rights.

 

I think this is a closer fight than expected unless Broner somehow does a complete overhaul of his style. 

Broner UD

Keith “One Time” Thurman 24-0(21 KO) vs Robert “The Ghost” Guerrero 32-2-1(18 KO)

Now this is a matchup that has some real intrigue behind it. Thurman has been a star in the making for a couple years but a lot of relevant fighters have appeared to not want to fight him due to the risk/reward behind facing him. Some notable fighters like Malignaggi and Guerrero stated that he needed more “seasoning” before they would face him. Since the Floyd Mayweather fight, Robert Guerrero has seemed to expect some serious paydays without actually getting in to fight guys and rebuild his image. Instead, he opted to fight some lesser fighters while still getting paid(which is smart, but sucks for boxing). 

Thurman himself, well you’ve probably seen him write about him before on this blog and all about the attributes he possesses. The handspeed, the power, the movement, the great boxing ability. The charisma. Yea, yea, yea.  That he has gone this long without developing into a superstar or getting the shot at a real championship has annoyed me. This year may be his chance to do all of that, fortunately. His last fight against undefeated Leonard Bundu of Italy, for some reason was really maligned due to Thurman promising a knockout pre fight. And why not? Look at his KO percentage. He arguably won 12 rounds by boxing and moving, even knocking Bundu down early. I think because people didn’t really know of Bundu they held this 12-0 shutout against him. What we saw that night is really what Thurman is: a very skilled boxer-puncher. 

Guerrero at this stage, even with only 2 losses, really isn’t what people used to believe he was, similar to Adrien Broner. He’s not a boxer anymore apparently. Every fight he has over the past few years(aside from Floyd which he lost badly) has turned into a slugfest. None of this is really a bad thing because it means more exciting outcomes for the fans, but at the same time, people shouldn’t really expect Guerrero to come out there and use his jab and move.  At this stage he’s a way better body puncher and inside fighter than he is anything else. He doesn’t have that much power but the accumulation has done damage on his recent opponents who are leagues below Thurman, though.  He also possesses a great chin.

For Thurman to win he needs to do what he usually does, which Is boxing and moving. He has much better speed of hand and feet than Guerrero does by far so staying out of range and popping him with jabs and countering while also finding the right moments to stand his ground and tee off with power shots. His movement is just so good  Keith has been really good at adjusting as evidenced by the Chaves and Bundu fights. 

For Guerrero to win he’s going to have to weather the storm of One Time’s attack. He’s going to have to take some to give, as he has done in a lot of his fights recently. People question how good Thurman’s chin is because he’s been buzzed once or twice as well as how good he truly is as an inside fighter. If Guerrero can get to his body and makes it a rough and dirty fight like he did against Berto then he possibly can wear Thurman down and cut down on his movement. 

I see Thurman taking this fight by decision by outboxing The Ghost and making him look very slow in the process. Guerrero’s chin is the reason this goes 12. 

Thurman UD.