Pascal vs Kovalev and undercard Analysis

Boxing in 2014 was underwhelming for a myriad of reasons already explained but one of the biggest was the lack of huge fights between the best in a lot of divisions. The Light Heavyweight division was one of those culprits. Adonis Stevenson was one of those at fault. Sure we got Kovalev-Hopkins(in a rather one sided and boring fight) but what the hardcore boxing fans and writers really wanted was Kovalev-Stevenson. Prime fighters who have left a huge mark on the division lately. But alas, we are getting probably the next best thing in Kovalev-Pascal.  The entire card itself looks to be great as well as the main event, which always a great thing for boxing. 

Sergey “Krusher” Kovalev 26-0(23 KO) vs Jean Pascal 29-2(17 KO)

Jean Pascal lobbied hard for a superfight between he and Adonis Stevenson, hurling insult after insult at him, even going so far as to accept a 40-60 split just to get this fight made. All the boxing community wanted was Adonis to face someone at that level if he wasn’t going to face Kovalev. After Kovalev’s big win over Bernard Hopkins, Pascal jumped at the opportunity to face him, giving him his biggest payday in the process. Kovalev is just a dominating force in the Light Heavyweight division and comes to fight which is what boxing fans want and what the sport needs.  This matchup is probably the toughest of his career, while still maintaining that Hopkins was the best fighter he has faced yet.  

Sergey Kovalev has broken the mold and shown himself to be a great all around fighter despite the immense power he possesses. His fight against B-Hop showed the ability to stick to a strategy and stay patient against an incredibly intelligent fighter. The jab, the varied attack to the head and body, the general ability to adjust to the guy in front of him. We’re seeing a p4p guy that could eventually turn out to be an ATG fighter if he continues on the path he’s on. Now, we probably could’ve said that about Chad Dawson(lol) a couple years back as well, but the statement still holds true. There is this aura of invincibility around him that other great guys in the past have had.  I think what we may not have seen in a while is how Kovalev responds to really getting hit hard by an elite guy and how he does when someone is strong enough to push him backwards. He had been knocked down by Darnell Boone years back, but that guy has given tough fight to even some of the best, like Andre Ward and Adonis Stevenson.

Jean Pascal has had a very interesting career. A very good one. But for some reason, the perception has been that of the 3^rd guy. “Yeah, Pascal is a tough fighter!”. The thing about his career is his only 2 losses have come to ATG Bernard Hopkins 4 years ago and future Hall of Famer Carl Froch. His notable wins are handing former LHW king, Chad Dawson his first loss as well as a win over Lucian Bute and Adrian Diaconu. Pascal is just a strong and fast fighter with good power in both hands. He has modeled his fighting style off of Roy Jones Jr. in terms of the unorthodox nature of his attack as well as keeping his hands very low while using his athletic gifts to attack as well as slip punches. The problem with that is, Roy Jones Jr. was virtually unbeatable due to the supreme ability in his prime. Pascal is a notch below those athletic gifts. He can be hit cleanly and he does gas in the later rounds of his fights. 

Kovalev just needs to be Kovalev. Throw a bunch of straight punches while applying intelligent pressure. He does need to be wary of Pascal’s counters and unorthodox nature and try to time him when he springs forward as he is prone to doing. Pascal’s chin is legit and sometimes he plays possum to draw his opponents in. 

Pascal needs to do a lot to win this fight, really. His unorthodox style has worked for a while against some of the best fighters in SMW and LHW but he does have those losses because of stamina issues or because his attack was timed. The best thing for Pascal to do is not lunge too much because that will definitely lead to him being hurt. Stay defensively responsible. But I think he has to push Kovalev back in this fight even if that isn’t specifically in his nature. You can’t win this fight purely on the backfoot due to how smart Kovalev is with the attack. He has the speed advantage so if he IS going to spend a lot of time going backwards he should be moving quite a bit making Kovalev reset his attack.

All in all I will Pascal would have to seriously hurt Kovalev or KO him to win this fight straight up. That might prove to be a tough task. He does have a good enough chin to survive though.

Kovalev UD  

 

Steve “USS” Cunningham 28-6(13 KO) vs Vyacheslav “The Czar” Glazkov 19-0(12 KO)

What we have here is a good Heavyweight matchup between 2 guys who aren’t actually heavyweights at all. Cunningham had a good run at Cruiserweight but obviously the money is at Heavyweight, and Glazkov has campaigned in the division since he began his pro career but he looks more suited at the lower division as well. Though that may be true, none of this means they can’t have success in the division they’re in. 

We know about Steve Cunningham and that he’s fighting for his 9 year old daughter who has been sick since birth with a heart ailment. It’s one of the most compelling stories in boxing and makes watching his fights that much better. Cunningham has faced the best the the Cruiserweight division has to offer, from  Cuban Joan Pablo Hernandez to Germany’s Marco Huck. He has 6 losses on his record but he’s a multiple champion and also has some big wins over the likes of Huck and Krzysztof Wlodarczyk. At heavyweight, since his loss to Tyson Fury, he’s on a 3 fight winning streak including wins over undefeated Amir Mansour and Natu Visinia. Cunningham is a good boxer with a really long reach standing at 82”. He has good movement and jab to offset his lack of power. He has exhibited some power, though, when he’s willing to sit down on his punches(as do a lot of similar fighters lol). He does get drawn into other people’s kind of fights at times and he can be hit if timed. He’s a good mover and focused but not necessarily a great defensive fighter and has been hurt and knocked down numerous times.

Glazkov is a former Bronze medalist and doesn’t have quite the story and resume that Cunningham has but is on the path to fighting for a HW championship soon enough with a win. He has a good win over the then 19-1, Tor Hamer but his career has had about 2 disputed fights occurring against Malik Scott and Derric Rossy. The Scott fight, a lot of people saw him losing a wide decision in a very boring fight but he luckily got out of there with a draw. The Rossy fight which was closer, but he again benefitted from a wide card not based on reality. Glazkov is a good, strong pressure fighter who has solid but not spectacular power. The problem with Glazkov is that he gets sucked into inactivity in his fights and often plods forward without throwing punches. This happened against Malik Scott whose workrate wasn’t even special in their fight. He has switched trainers but it seems this problem still plagues him.

For Cunningham to win he needs to stay off the ropes as much as possible and keep Glazkov engaged with the jab and counter him when he saunters inside. Glazkov has bouts of inactivity so it should be easy enough for USS to stick to the gameplan and make the fight easy for himself and he isn’t exactly very hard to hit. 

For Glazkov to win he has to draw Cunningham into a war. The pressure he applies has gotta be quicker and he has to be more active when he has his man on the ropes. I think if he hurts Cunningham early then he has an advantage mentally and can possibly make Cunningham switch his entire strategy. 

I’m going with Cunningham because I haven’t seen enough impressive to warrant picking Glazkov to win this fight and because the fighters Cunningham has lost to are all elite in their division. 

Cunningham by UD

 

Vasily “The Professor” Lepikhin 17-0(9 KO) vs Isaac “Golden Boy” Chilemba 23-2(10 KO)

Here we have another matchup of 2 of the up and coming fighters in a burgeoning Light Heavyweight division. Let’s get right to it.

What I like from Russia’s Lepikhin is that he’s a massive 6’4” in the LHW division but that he also has very good boxing ability to supplement his height. He towers over everyone so he should use those gifts, right? He also shows surprisingly good dedication to body work. His fight against Berride was easy because he had a huge size and technical advantage. The fight against Junior was tougher because he didn’t just stand there and got inside Lepikhin for a couple rounds. I noticed that he got drawn into laying on the ropes and not punching in that fight but maybe it was strategic. I saw him get hit cleanly a couple times and look gassed, though. 

The South African Chilemba has the same measurements as Lepikhin does. Very even match physically. He has some disputed losses/draws but overall those don’t take away from him as a fighter. He has the advantage in resume(Vlasov, Bellew, Oosthuizen) by far despite the fact that Lepikhin is 2 years older than him. That should serve him well. Chilemba is a good fighter who works off his jab a lot and stays very busy in the ring. He doesn’t move that much and seems content to box toe to toe a lot of times. That probably is partly due to solid defense and head movement. Sometimes though, he tends to lunge a bit and get his head out there open for counters. 

For Lephikin to win he needs to time Chilemba with the right hand over the jab and move his head when he’s on the offensive. He really needs to keep his workrate solid with the jab as well. Of course, it’s nice to have a varied attack, but he needs to be wary of just walking inside without punching on Chilemba because as I said, he’s a busy busy boxer with a snapping jab. Front or back foot, Lephikin needs to keep his focus.

For Chilemba to win he needs to outwork Lephikin and keep him occupied as much as he can. He also needs to provide some angles so Lephikin has to think more about his attack. I think as evidenced from Lephikin’s last fight, there will be spots where he fades a bit and leans on the ropes to get his rest. During those moments, Chilemba will have a chance to land to the body and head while Lephikin covers up. 

All of the fights on this card are just so competitive, man. 

I’m going with Lephikin by SD

PBC on NBC! Thurman vs Guerrero, Broner vs Molina Analysis

Saturday, March 7^th marks the beginning of the PBC (Premier Boxing Champions) on NBC, the brainchild of Al Haymon that clearly has been in the works for years and explains why fighters managed by him basically mailed 2014 in with weak matchups. It truly is an exciting time in boxing and with the slate of fights scheduled already on public tv as well as on cable (including the biggest one obviously), it looks as if boxing may be undergoing a much needed resurgence.  Headlining the card, we have 2 of Haymon’s most promising fighters in Keith Thurman and the much maligned Adrien Broner squaring off against solid and decent tests in Robert Guerrero and John Molina. 

Adrien “The Problem” Broner 29-1(22 KO) vs John Molina 27-5(22 KO)

We all know Adrien Broner, and not really for what he’s done inside the boxing ring, mostly because of his mouth and antics outside of it. He does have an accomplished career thus far, but one thing people can’t shake from their mind is the image of him getting beat up and losing his zero against Marcos Maidana. Since then, in an attempt to build Broner back up, he has been matched up with C level fighters who really have no chance of beating him. Even still, the same flaws apparent during the loss against Maidana have been still on display against these guys. The inconsistent work rate, the not so fast feet and the shoulder roll that allows him to be hit flush still while shaking his head “NO”. Even with all these flaws, Broner still has physical advantages such as speed and power(to a lesser extent now that he’s moved up) that will allow him to remain relevant for a long time. His ability to counter is also a tool as well as a jab that can be quite good when he commits. 

John Molina is a guy whose biggest wins have come against undefeated Hank Lundy and Mickey Bey when he was getting outboxed in a big way and pulled out the KO late. No matter your feelings about him, those are 2 big wins over really good fighters.  The problem with Molina is that those 2 fights are basically who he is. He can be outboxed and he can be hit very easily because he presents nothing more than a come forward fighter who lacks defense. He’s 3-4 in his last 7 fights with 2 losses in a row to Lucas Matthysse and Humberto Soto.  There’s a reason he’s getting to fight Broner.  I will say this tho, the guy can really punch and that is testament to his 2 wins over Bey and Lundy as well as his 2 knockdowns against Matthysse in last year’s fight. 

The matchup is pretty simple to me.  I look for Broner to hand Molina his 3^rd straight loss, though I can’t see this being by knockout. Broner is the faster and better overall as a fighter. I expect Adrien to utilize his trademark shoulder(lol) roll and counter punching to try and wear down Molina. At this point though, we’ve all seen his limitations with footwork and defense so I don’t expect him to put on some boxing masterclass against an opponent he probably should. 

For Molina, I think he will have his most success where every Broner opponent has: when he has these lulls offensively where he seemingly refuses to throw punches. If Molina can get off first and throw 70 punches a round he might have a good shot to really get to Broner. Easier said than done tho. I think trying his best to emulate Maidana’s gameplan would work best. Left hooks and overhand rights.

 

I think this is a closer fight than expected unless Broner somehow does a complete overhaul of his style. 

Broner UD

Keith “One Time” Thurman 24-0(21 KO) vs Robert “The Ghost” Guerrero 32-2-1(18 KO)

Now this is a matchup that has some real intrigue behind it. Thurman has been a star in the making for a couple years but a lot of relevant fighters have appeared to not want to fight him due to the risk/reward behind facing him. Some notable fighters like Malignaggi and Guerrero stated that he needed more “seasoning” before they would face him. Since the Floyd Mayweather fight, Robert Guerrero has seemed to expect some serious paydays without actually getting in to fight guys and rebuild his image. Instead, he opted to fight some lesser fighters while still getting paid(which is smart, but sucks for boxing). 

Thurman himself, well you’ve probably seen him write about him before on this blog and all about the attributes he possesses. The handspeed, the power, the movement, the great boxing ability. The charisma. Yea, yea, yea.  That he has gone this long without developing into a superstar or getting the shot at a real championship has annoyed me. This year may be his chance to do all of that, fortunately. His last fight against undefeated Leonard Bundu of Italy, for some reason was really maligned due to Thurman promising a knockout pre fight. And why not? Look at his KO percentage. He arguably won 12 rounds by boxing and moving, even knocking Bundu down early. I think because people didn’t really know of Bundu they held this 12-0 shutout against him. What we saw that night is really what Thurman is: a very skilled boxer-puncher. 

Guerrero at this stage, even with only 2 losses, really isn’t what people used to believe he was, similar to Adrien Broner. He’s not a boxer anymore apparently. Every fight he has over the past few years(aside from Floyd which he lost badly) has turned into a slugfest. None of this is really a bad thing because it means more exciting outcomes for the fans, but at the same time, people shouldn’t really expect Guerrero to come out there and use his jab and move.  At this stage he’s a way better body puncher and inside fighter than he is anything else. He doesn’t have that much power but the accumulation has done damage on his recent opponents who are leagues below Thurman, though.  He also possesses a great chin.

For Thurman to win he needs to do what he usually does, which Is boxing and moving. He has much better speed of hand and feet than Guerrero does by far so staying out of range and popping him with jabs and countering while also finding the right moments to stand his ground and tee off with power shots. His movement is just so good  Keith has been really good at adjusting as evidenced by the Chaves and Bundu fights. 

For Guerrero to win he’s going to have to weather the storm of One Time’s attack. He’s going to have to take some to give, as he has done in a lot of his fights recently. People question how good Thurman’s chin is because he’s been buzzed once or twice as well as how good he truly is as an inside fighter. If Guerrero can get to his body and makes it a rough and dirty fight like he did against Berto then he possibly can wear Thurman down and cut down on his movement. 

I see Thurman taking this fight by decision by outboxing The Ghost and making him look very slow in the process. Guerrero’s chin is the reason this goes 12. 

Thurman UD.